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Stats & Reports

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When testing horse racing systems, FlashRace will compute the following stats:

1. System Performance

Bank level — the final level of the betting bank at the end of the test.

Profit/Loss — the total profit/loss at the end of the test, as the sum of all profit/loss from each individual qualified market.

ROI (Return of Investment) — represents the total profit/loss ratio applied to the total capital employed. It measures the betting efficiency of the system compared to total turnover. It is expressed in % (percent).

When calculated for exchange betting, where you can place both back and lay bets, the total capital employed represents the market liability, or the financial risk one takes when placing bets in a specific market.

For back bets: liability = stake.

For lay bets: liability = stake (odds – 1). For lay bets, the capital employed is not the stake, but the amount lost if the selection wins (bet loses).

Therefore, the ROI formula is:

 

Return of Investment formula
  • PL = total profit/loss
  • ∑ML = sum of total liability from each market

For each racing system, we take into account the market liability, not the individual liability for each bet. This is because when multiple bets are placed in a market, the total liability (capital employed) of the market is not always the sum of each bet’s liability.

Example: 3 lay bets of £1 are placed on 3 different selections in a market, with the odds of 2.5, 5.6 and 11. As there can be only one winner, the worst case scenario is when a runner with odds of 11 wins, because then the highest amount of money is lost. So the total liability in that market is calculated by taking into account the worst case scenario, in which runner with odds of 11 wins, so the bet loses, but then the other 2 bets win. Consequently, the total capital employed has the following value:

Total liability = £10 – £2 = £8

  • £10 – the amount lost when a runner at odds 11 wins
  • £2 – the amount gained when a runner at odds 11 wins

Expected winners — the expected number of winning bets based on the calculated probabilities. The probability that a bet wins derives from the selection’s odds and is computed differently for back and lay bets:

Back bet:

 

Win probability - Back
  • P(w) — the probability that the bet wins, as a value between 0 and 1
  • Odds — the decimal odds of the selection

Lay bet:

 
  • P(w) — the probability that the bet wins, as a value between 0 and 1
  • Odds — the decimal odds of the selection
Therefore, the expected winner is the sum of winning bet’s probabilities:
  • EW = expected winners.
  • ∑P(w) = the sum of all probabilities of winning bets.
  • Example: The following table shows how EW is calculated both for back and lay bets.

OddsP(w) – BACKP(w) – LAY
2.500.400.60
3.250.310.69
7.800.130.87
5.500.180.82
Expected winners1.022.98

In real life, with your horse racing systems, in order to build statistics over a betting strategy, the Expected Winners must have a value of at least 10 in order to guarantee that enough bets were taken into consideration. The sample size needs to be high enough for the statistical analysis to be trusted.

Actual/Expected Wins — represents the ratio between the actual number of winning bets and the expected number of winning bets:

Actual/Expected wins formula

Archie score — represents the likelihood of chance with regards to the betting results. It is a critical parameter that measures the degree of chance in your selection system and shows if your racing system might be profitable or not. A low Archie score indicates that the results are very likely to be the consequence of chance, and a high Archie score increases the trust in the results due to a very low probability of chance.

The formula for computing the Archie score is based on the Chi-Square Formula:

Archie square formula
  • Bets — total number of bets
  • Wins — total number of winning bets
  • EW — expected winners

For the Archie score value to gain meaning, mathematicians pre-calculated a mapping table that can be used in order to retrieve the likelihood of chance.

Archie scoreLikelihood of chance
0.358%
0.548%
1.032%
1.522%
2.016%
2.511%
3.08%
3.56%
4.05%
4.53%
5.03%
5.52%
6.01%
6.51%
7.01%
7.51%
8.01%
8.50%
9.00%
9.50%
10.00%
10.50%
11.00%
11.50%
12.00%

Withdrawal amount — the total amount withdrawn from the bank.

Refill amount — the total amount of wallet refills due to insufficient funds.

2. Market Results

Qualified markets — total qualified markets of your system with at least one qualified runner.

Markets with bets — total qualified markets of your system with at least one bet placed on a selection. This number might be different from the total qualified markets due to the financial system’s strategy.

Market wins — the total number of market wins. A market is considered a win if the total profit/loss of that market is higher than 0. Otherwise, it is considered a loss.

Market strike rate (%) — the strike rate of the markets, expressed as a percentage:

Maximum bets per day — the maximum number of bets placed in one day.

3. Selection Results

These stats refer to individual selections and their corresponding bets in a market.

Qualified runners — total qualified runners in all markets for your racing system.

Number of bets — total bets placed in all markets. This number may differ from the number of qualified runners due to the financial system’s strategy.

Number of winning bets — total winning bets.

Runner strike rate (%) — the strike rate of the placed bets, expressed as a percentage:

Strike Rate formula

4. Banking

Highest bank — the highest betting bank level encountered of your system.

Highest bank (% initial bank) — the highest betting bank level encountered, expressed as a percentage of the starting bank.

Lowest bank — the lowest betting bank level encountered.

Lowest bank (% initial bank) — the lowest betting bank level encountered, expressed as a percentage of the starting bank.

Lowest bank (% highest bank) — the lowest betting bank level encountered, expressed as a percentage of the highest bank.

Refills count — total number of wallet refills, due to insufficient funds.

Withdrawals count — total number of withdrawals performed.

Highest Profit/Loss — the highest level of the profit/loss encountered of your racing system.

5. Market Liability

Liability refers to the total capital employed in a market (race). It is the total amount one risks with all the bets placed in that specific market. When dealing with back and lay bets, liability has to be calculated with care.

Back bets — The liability in a market equals the sum of all stakes because for a back bet the capital employed is equal to the stake. A special case is when back bets are placed on all selections in a market. As one selection will win, the total capital employed is no longer the sum of all stakes. The worst case scenario needs to be considered when the favourite wins, leading to the lowest profit. Therefore, the formulas for these two cases are:

  • This formula applies to the case when back bets are not placed on all selections in a market.
  • ∑s — the sum of all stakes placed in the market.
Market liability 2
  • This formula applies to the case when back bets are placed on all selections in a market.
  • ∑rs — the sum of all stakes placed on selections other than the one with the lowest price.

Lay bets — When laying selections, only one bet can lose. Therefore, the market liability is calculated by considering the worst case scenario — the runner with the highest price wins (only runners with bets are considered). That specific bet will lose, but the other ones will win, reducing the total financial risk. The formula is:

Market liability lay
  • ∑rs — the sum of all stakes placed on selections other than the one with the highest price.

This is the maximum amount one can lose when laying in a market. Therefore, it represents the total market liability.

Total markets liability — the sum of the total liability from each market. This is the total capital employed in all markets and it is a key parameter when computing the ROI (Return of Investment) of your horse racing systems.

Highest market liability — the maximum liability from all markets.

Highest market liability (% current bank) — the highest market liability expressed as a percentage of the current bank (the bank level at the time of the market).

Lowest market liability — the minimum liability from all markets.

Lowest market liability (% current bank) — the lowest market liability expressed as a percentage of the current bank (the bank level at the time of the market).

Average market liability — the average liability of all markets.

Average market liability (% current bank) — the average liability of all markets, expressed as a percentage of the current bank (the bank level at the time of the market).

6. Prices

Minimum runner price — the lowest odds in all bets.

Maximum runner price — the highest odds in all bets.

Average runner price — the average odds of all bets.

Minimum winning price — the lowest odds in all winning bets.

Maximum winning price — the highest odds in all winning bets.

Average winning price — the average odds of all winning bets.

7. Stakes

Total stakes — the total amount of all stakes placed in the qualified markets.

Highest stake — the highest stake placed in all markets.

Highest stake (% current bank) — the highest stake placed expressed as a percentage of the current bank (the bank level at the time of the bet).

Lowest stake — the lowest stake placed in all markets.

Lowest stake (% current bank) — the lowest stake placed expressed as a percentage of the current bank (the bank level at the time of the bet).

Average stake — the average of all stakes placed.

Average stake (% current bank) — the average of all stakes placed, expressed as a percentage of the current bank (the bank level at the time of the bet).

8. Winning/Losing run

The following stats refer to consecutive market wins/losses. If the total profit/loss in a market is higher than 0, then it is considered a win; otherwise, it is a loss. Winning/losing runs are extremely valuable to identify what are the risks you need to take into account when setting up the financial features for your horse racing system.

Minimum winning run — the lowest number of consecutive market wins.

Maximum winning run — the highest number of consecutive market wins.

Average winning run — the average number of consecutive market wins over the whole test.

Minimum losing run — the lowest number of consecutive market losses.

Maximum losing run — the highest number of consecutive market losses.

Average losing run — the average number of consecutive market losses over the whole test.

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