Betting Strategies - Financial Systems
In order to sustain a profitable betting strategy in the long run, a performant selection system won’t be enough. It will only provide the selections to bet on, but this system must be financially sustainable in the market.
The term Betting Strategy (or Financial System) is a complex statement that refers to the whole financial setup of betting activity, from the management of the betting bank to the staking plan used to calculate the current stakes placed in the market. The goal of a betting strategy is to provide a financial setup that will expose the betting bankroll to the lowest risks while maintaining a high ROI (Return of Investment) and a realistic cash-flow.
A good financial setup will protect the bank from long losing runs and will adapt according to its evolution. You can test various staking scenarios, from high risks with high ROI, to low risks but constant and positive ROI.
FlashRace takes all these into consideration and provides the following tools:
- System editor – used to create the systems. For each financial system, you can set up the basic info along with a complex banking and staking plan configuration.
- Testing environment – provides all the necessary tools to properly test the financial systems. Detailed stats as well as charts provide a clear image over the system’s performance. For an in-depth analysis, detailed results of the betting activity are available for each qualified market.
Creating Betting Strategies
Click Edit Systems in the Main Menu Financial Systems tab to open the Financial Systems Editor.
The editor has the following panes:
- System list viewer
- System builder
System list viewer
This pane shows all the financial systems defined by the user. The following features are available:
- Search – type in the search box to filter the system list. Systems are filtered by name and tags.
- Add new system – click the “+” button to create a new system.
- Clone system – click the “clone” icon over the system name in the list to duplicate the system.
- Delete system – click the “delete” icon over the system name in the list to delete the system. Confirmation will be required.
- Edit system – click on the system name in the list to open it in the system viewer pane.
For each system, the following information is required:
Fill in the name, tags, and description of the system.
Betting bankroll configuration
Step 1 – Fill in the initial bank. This will be the starting betting bank.
Step 2 – Fill in the maximum stake. In the long run, this setup keeps the betting bank to realistic values, as in real betting scenarios the stake is limited by the matched amount on each selection in the market.
Step 3 – Check whether to increase each stake to recover the exchange commission. If checked, each stake will increase with the necessary amount in order to cancel the exchange commission deducted from the profit.
Example: In case of a £10 lay bet and 5% exchange commission, the profit if the selection loses will be £9.5. If recovering the commission option is checked, this means that the desired profit is £10, therefore the placed stake is £10.53.
Step 4 – Select the desired action when no funds are available. During the simulated betting activity, the betting bank might drop down to levels that won’t sustain the calculated stakes. In this case, there are 2 options available:
- Skip market – the current market will be skipped and no bets will be placed.
- Refill wallet with the necessary amount – the necessary amount is added to the betting bank. This action simulates a refill of the wallet in real betting activity. This way, bets can be placed in the real market.
Note: The necessary amount is basically the total market liability. For example, in case a £10 lay bet is placed on a runner with the price 3.5, the betting bank needs to be at least £25 (total liability) in order for the bet to be actually placed.
Step 5 – Select whether to withdraw money in some conditions during the betting activity. This option simulates a real scenario when over a long period of time, one can periodically withdraw the profits from the betting activity.
When enabled, there are 3 parameters that need to be configured:
- Withdraw amount – represents the amount that is withdrawn from the betting bank.
- The available options are:
- Units – when selected, a specific number of units (1 unit = £1) will be withdrawn.
- Percent of current bank – when selected, a specific percent of the current betting bank will be withdrawn.
- The difference to the reference – in this case, the difference between the current bank and the reference withdraw bank will be withdrawn. At the beginning, the reference is the starting betting bank.
- Bank increase threshold – represents the increase threshold of the betting bank compared to a reference that will trigger the withdrawal.
- The available options are:
- Units – the increase threshold is a specific number of units (1 unit = £1).
- Percent – the increase threshold is a specific percent of the reference bank.
Bank reference after a withdrawal – represents the new bank reference, after a withdrawal, which is used in computing the increase threshold that triggers the withdrawal. At the start of the test, the first reference is the starting betting bank.
The available options are:
Leave the reference equal to initial bank – if this is selected, the withdraw bank reference will always be the initial bank.
Set the reference equal to bank after withdrawal – this sets the new bank after withdrawal as the new reference for further withdrawals.
Step 6 – Set up the stop profit conditions. Stop profit is a safety method that you can use to stop betting if a desired increase in betting bank is encountered. As it is very likely that a losing run will come, the stop profit action pauses the betting for a while.
The parameters that need to be set are:
- Increase amount – stop loss is triggered when the reference bank increased by the specified amount.
- Restart betting after X hours/days – the betting activity will restart after the specified period, with the current bank as the new reference for the increase threshold.
Step 7 – Set up the stop loss conditions. Stop loss is a safety method that you can use to stop betting if a specific decrease of the betting bank is encountered. This way, the losing run is limited and this acts as a safety measure in order to protect the bank.
The parameters that need to be set are:
- Decrease amount – stop loss is triggered when the reference bank decreased by the specified amount. The reference bank might be either the initial bank or the highest bank (in this case the stop loss is actually a trailing stop loss).
- Restart betting after X hours/days – the betting activity will restart after the specified period, with the current bank as the new reference for the decrease threshold.
Note: After each Stop Loss and Stop Profit action, if restart is set, the betting session is reset as follows:
- The initial and highest bank is set to current bank – this way new references for stop loss, stop profit and staking plans are set.
- The staking plan is reset – this is a safety measure, especially for recovery staking plans. For example, if in recovery and stake is at a high level, enabling stop loss limits the loss and resets the stake to the initial level.
This way, further losses are avoided.
Step 8 – Set up sleeper mode, if desired. The sleeper mode feature is a very useful simulation tool that enables waiting for the positive context to bet. It is used by many punters in real life betting. For example, you can wait for a long losing run before starting to bet, thus increasing the chance of immediate winning bets.
The parameters that need to be set are:
- Markets threshold – the condition evaluation is done for the last X markets.
- Strike rate value – the strike rate over the last X markets is evaluated.
- Comparator – used at comparing the strike rate value.
Staking plan configuration
Each betting strategy uses a configurable staking plan from a predefined list. The complete tutorial for the staking plans available in FlashRace can be found in the corresponding chapter.
Step 1 – Select the staking plan from the list. Staking plans are organized in Back/Lay and Recovery/Non-recovery.
Step 2 – Configure the staking plan parameters. Each staking plan has a specific set of parameters to configure.
Example: The picture below shows the necessary parameters to configure for the Back Level staking plan.
Testing Betting Strategies
After finishing building betting strategies (financial systems), the next step is to start testing. The following instructions will lead to proper testing and optimization of the betting strategies.
Configure & Perform test
In order to configure the test, the following setup needs to be done in the commands section of the Financial Systems tab:
Step 1 – Choose the selection system to test. The dropdown selector will display all the available selection systems.
Step 2 – Choose multiple financial systems to test in parallel. One can create multiple financial systems and compare results by testing more than one at the same time. The dropdown selector will display all the available financial systems.
Step 3 – Choose the time interval of the races. This interval follows the minimum and maximum time limits of the races database.
Step 4 – Press Run and wait for the test results.
Note: The test duration depends on how strict the selection system is. If many runners are qualified, this will increase the duration. Nevertheless, you must take into consideration that years of races are simulated in a matter of seconds.
Step 4 – Analyze test results. At the end of the simulation, the overall stats along with detailed stats for each year are displayed. One can evaluate both the overall performance and the evolution of the system’s performance.
Step 5 – Perform in-depth analysis of the system evolution in time. Expand year nodes to break down the results over months. Consecutively, expand a month node to break down the results over days.
Tips & Tricks:
- When analyzing results, look also at the withdrawal and refill amounts. This will create the complete picture of the necessary cash-flow to sustain the system in the real betting scenario.
- Look for a relatively consistent performance over time. If the results are consistent from month to month, or bimonthly, this means the overall system is stable and reliable.
The Charts tool enables a visual representation of the evolution of the key values over time or a specific distribution of the parameters of interest.
To load the charts associated with the test, click Load Charts button in the Financial Systems tab.
The following charts are available:
- Bank evolution over time – each point on the graph displays the final bank level at the end of that specific day.
- Daily profit – total profit/loss for each day.
- Maximum liability (% of the current bank) for each day – this data is useful for checking the level of risk taken in each day of betting.
- Winning prices distribution – creates a visual representation of how many winners were in a specific price interval.
- Prices distribution – creates a visual representation for the prices of the qualified runners.
- Winning/Losing run distribution – useful for identifying the margins of winning and losing runs that need to be considered by the system.
Tips & Tricks: Use the inspection tools of the graphs (where applicable) for an in-depth analysis of the visual data.
Markets viewer tool
The Markets Viewer tool is used for an in-depth view of the simulated betting results. It displays, market by market, the results of the betting activity. To use this tool:
Step 1 – Press the Load Markets button in the Financial Systems tab.
Step 2 – Select the period of time for which the markets are retrieved. No more than X markets can be retrieved at once. To load additional markets, change the selected interval.
Step 3 – Analyze each market result.
Step 4 – Click on a market to view the market details.